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Dylan Bell

NFL First Look Picks | Week 3

Updated on September 21st, 2021.
By Dylan Bell (@LiberDBell)
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First Look Picks:

Justin Herbert ($6,500)

Analysis: Starting with Herbert vs the Chiefs in a 55.5 o/u game. The Chiefs haven’t been great on defense to start the season. They’ve allowed 36 and 29 real life points, and are giving up the 7th most DraftKings PPG to the quarterback position at 26.95. The Chargers offense might not be on the level of the Ravens and Browns, but I do expect them to be able to move the ball and they have a team implied total of 24.5.

Herbert had solid games in each of the first 2 weeks of the season, throwing 300+ yards in each game. We haven’t seen his upside yet due to him only throwing 1 TD in each game, but it’s sure to come. Game script is also in our favor, as the Chargers should be playing from behind and be forced into more passing situations.

Najee Harris ($6,600)

Analysis: Najee started to trend in the right direction in week 2 against the Raiders. We’re starting to see that receiving game upside that we expected from him. He caught all 5 of his targets for 43 yards and a TD, while adding another 38 yards on the ground. He’s never going to have the best rushing upside behind the bad Pittsburgh offensive line this season, but he will still be a viable week-to-week play based off of the receiving upside alone.

Saquon Barkley ($6,500)

Analysis: Barkley’s usage is going up as he tries to get to 100% after his injury last season. He played 48% of the snaps in week 1 and 84% in week 2. This is a really good sign for one of the NFL’s top backs who’s DraftKings price is only $6,500. Once Barkley is fully healthy and is playing his full role for the Giants, we wont see him this cheap for the rest of the season. 

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Ty'Son Williams ($5,800)

Analysis: Williams is a fairly cheap back I have a lot of interest in this week. He had 4 more rushes than Latavius Murray in week 2, although Murray did get the TD. I think Williams is just the better back and will be the one whos more involved as we get further into the season. It’s a great matchup against the Lions and I expect this Baltimore run scheme to have a field day in Detroit.

Keenan Allen ($6,600)

Analysis: If I’m going to mention Herbert, I have to mention his #1 receiver. Allen’s price dropped $400 this week. He has 21 targets and two 100 yard games in 2 games this season, and he’s historically a guy who gets a ton of targets and opportunity. As I mentioned earlier I do expect the Chargers to be able to move the ball in this game and they should be playing from behind so I think it’s a good spot to go right back to Keenan Allen.

Antonio Brown ($5,200)

Analysis: MBC’s price dropped all the way down to $5,200 after only having 1 catch for 17 yards in week 2. In week 1 we seen the type of upside AB still has when he went for 121 yards and a TD on 5 catches. He’s still a guy who would be the #1 receiver on the majority of teams in the NFL, but he happens to play on the same team as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Regardless I find it impossible not to have interest in AB’s upside at only $5,200. I would imagine Jalen Ramsey will be covering Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for the majority of the day, so there’s that as well.

Rob Gronkowski ($5,500)

Analysis: No disrespect to guys like Travis Kelce and Darren Waller, but Gronk may very well still be the best TE in the world. He has 2 touchdowns in each of his last 3 games including the Super Bowl. The Brady to Gronk connection is as good as ever right now and Gronk’s price is only going to keep jumping up with the way he’s playing. This might be your last chance to take advantage of Gronk at less than $6k.

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